Your semi-regular update on what schools have low vaccination rates around Olympia

Usually, about when there is something in the news about an outbreak around here, I'll go to the state Department of Health and find out what the vaccination rates are at our local schools (and here). This time around, there is a measles outbreak just about an hour south of us, so I thought it would be nice to narrow in specifically on exemptions (personal, religious or health) for the measles, mumps, rubella vaccination.

According to the most recent data, there are a handful of schools in the Olympia area with fairly high exemption rates for the MMR vaccine.

School	Percent exempt for measles, mumps, rubella	Percent with any personal and religious exemptions (not just MMR)	Percent with medical exemption (not just MMR)
OLY REGIONAL LEARNING ACADEMY	16.2%	22.1%	6.3%
ORLA MONTESSORI	15.5%	23.5%	8.5%
OLYMPIA COMMUNITY SCHOOL	12.9%	29.0%	12.9%
LINCOLN ELEMENTARY	12.7%	24.0%	4.6%
GRAVITY	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%
AVANTI HIGH SCHOOL	12.0%	19.0%	1.4%
Paramount Christian Academy	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%
TUMWATER WEST	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%
NOVA SCHOOL	8.6%	10.5%	1.0%
PIONEER ELEMENTARY	5.9%	10.6%	2.7%
BLACK LAKE ELEMENTARY	5.7%	7.7%	1.7%
REEVES MIDDLE SCHOOL	5.1%	13.6%	2.0%
MICHAEL T SIMMONS ELEMENTARY	5.0%	6.7%	1.4%
THURGOOD MARSHALL MIDDLE SCHOO	4.9%	8.2%	1.8%
BOSTON HARBOR ELEMENTARY	4.7%	8.3%	2.4%
ROOSEVELT ELEMENTARY	4.6%	7.2%	1.7%
GARFIELD ELEMENTARY	4.6%	9.9%	2.2%
EVERGREEN CHRISTIAN SCHOOL	4.4%	7.8%	0.0%
TUMWATER HIGH SCHOOL	4.1%	6.5%	0.8%
NEW MARKET HIGH SCHOOL	4.0%	4.0%	0.0%
EAST OLYMPIA ELEMENTARY	3.9%	5.5%	0.4%
MARGARET MCKENNY ELEMENTARY	3.9%	4.2%	0.0%
OLYMPIA HIGH SCHOOL	3.9%	9.6%	0.3%
JEFFERSON MIDDLE SCHOOL	3.9%	6.6%	0.9%
CENTENNIAL ELEMENTARY	3.7%	5.4%	1.1%
BLACK HILLS HIGH SCHOOL	3.7%	6.4%	1.5%
CAPITAL HIGH SCHOOL	3.7%	7.0%	0.6%
PETER G SCHMIDT ELEM	3.7%	4.5%	1.0%
GEORGE WASHINGTON BUSH MS	3.5%	6.7%	0.6%
LITTLEROCK ELEMENTARY	3.1%	4.5%	1.4%
SOUTH BAY ELEMENTARY	3.1%	4.1%	1.0%
TUMWATER MIDDLE SCHOOL	3.1%	5.0%	1.0%
TUMWATER HILL ELEMENTARY	3.1%	4.2%	0.5%
WASHINGTON MIDDLE SCHOOL	2.8%	6.3%	1.0%
LACEY ELEMENTARY	2.8%	3.6%	0.8%
OLYMPIA CHRISTIAN SCHOOL	2.6%	10.5%	0.0%
LYDIA HAWK ELEMENTARY	2.5%	3.1%	0.2%
MEADOWS ELEMENTARY	2.4%	2.8%	1.0%
SOUTH SOUND HIGH SCHOOL	2.4%	3.0%	0.0%
SECONDARY OPTIONS	2.4%	3.9%	0.8%
OLYMPIC VIEW ELEMENTARY	2.3%	2.5%	0.9%
NORTH THURSTON HS	2.3%	5.8%	1.4%
NORTHWEST CHRISTIAN HIGH SCHOOL	2.3%	2.3%	0.8%
CORNERSTONE CHRISTIAN SCHOOL	2.2%	2.2%	0.0%
JULIA BUTLER HANSEN ELEMENTARY	2.2%	2.2%	1.1%
MADISON ELEMENTARY	2.1%	5.4%	0.0%
GOSPEL OUTREACH	2.0%	2.0%	0.0%
HORIZONS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL	1.9%	2.6%	0.9%
L P BROWN ELEMENTARY	1.8%	2.4%	0.3%
COMMUNITY CHRISTIAN ACADEMY	1.8%	3.0%	0.0%
ST. MICHAEL SCHOOL	1.7%	3.5%	0.9%
KOMACHIN MIDDLE SCHOOL	1.7%	3.5%	0.9%
TIMBERLINE HIGH SCHOOL	1.7%	3.4%	0.4%
CHAMBERS PRAIRIE ELEMENTARY	1.7%	3.3%	0.7%
NISQUALLY MIDDLE SCHOOL	1.5%	2.7%	0.7%
WOODLAND ELEMENTARY	1.4%	2.2%	0.3%
RIVER RIDGE HIGH SCHOOL	1.4%	3.2%	0.5%
SALISH MIDDLE SCHOOL	1.3%	2.3%	0.7%
ASPIRE MIDDLE SCHOOL	1.2%	4.9%	0.0%
EVERGREEN FOREST ELEMENTARY	1.2%	2.8%	1.2%
HOLY FAMILY SCHOOL	1.2%	1.2%	1.2%
POPE JOHN PAUL II HIGH SCHOOL	1.1%	1.1%	0.0%
MCLANE ELEMENTARY	1.0%	2.3%	1.3%
CHINOOK MIDDLE SCHOOL	0.9%	4.0%	0.9%
MOUNTAIN VIEW ELEMENTARY	0.8%	2.0%	0.5%
PLEASANT GLADE ELEMENTARY	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%
SEVEN OAKS ELEMENTARY	0.7%	2.0%	0.2%
NEW MARKET SKILLS CENTER	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
TOUCHSTONE SCHOOL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CAPITAL MONTESSORI SCHOOL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Here is the most recent data from the state and the spreadsheet I used.

What leaves me scratching my head about this data is that when you parse out the medical and personal exemptions, they seem to follow the same general pattern. Schools with high personal/religious exemptions also have high medical exemption rates. 

When I first started looking at this stuff, I assumed medical exemptions would be evenly dispersed across the area. It follows that since all of the schools that have high exemption rates are schools you either generally lottery into or opt into, that the personal/religious exemptions would gather there.  In the same way that opting into certain schools is an expression of a family's choice, so is opting out of vaccination. But the medical reasons for not being vaccinated, I don't think, would be more general and would not necessarily be tied to a family's school choices.

If you're new to this issue or just need some background, here is some information you might find useful:

Here is an explanation on how those exemptions work.

You've heard about herd immunity, or how the vaccination rate in a group of people that protects people who can't receive a vaccine. This is why a 16 percent exemption rate at ORLA or a 12 percent exemption rate at Lincoln are sort of scary.

According to the CDC, an immunization rate of 94 percent is necessary to prevent pertussis from persisting in a community. That is above the 88 percent that the exemption rate at Lincoln would indicate is that school's immunization rate.